SIKESTON — As farmers prepare to plant soybeans in the coming weeks, the potentially crop-damaging disease — Asian soybean rust — is never far from their minds.
“The rust thing has everybody a little edgy,” said David Reinbott, an economist at the Scott County University Extension office in Benton. “Farmers are planning on spraying (with a fungicide) at least one time, and hopefully one spray will do it.”
Last December the fungus that can stunt plant growth and wipe out a large portion of the crop was discovered near Portageville, Caruthersville and areas close to the Arkansas state line.
Amanda Hurley, crop insurance agent for Hurley and Associates Agri- Marketing Center in Charleston, said many farmers bought a higher level of insurance this year.
“There’s a definite level of concern,” Hurley said. “I think most feel comfortable they can take care of it with fungicides — but no one knows what’s going to happen. Next year I think we will have a better idea of what to expect.”
Despite rust fears, Missourians intend to plant 5.1 million acres of soybeans this year, up from 5 million acres last year. U.S. farmers will cut acreage by 2 percent, to 73.9 million acres from 75.2 million acres, according to a March 31 USDA report.
“All we can do is just wait and see,” Reinbott said, adding he thinks this year will be volatile for the soybean market.
Although November futures hit $6.50 per bushel nearly two weeks ago, by harvest time prices could fall to around $4.40 per bushel — assuming U.S. and South American crops are normal, according to John Kruse with the MU Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute.
The first trigger for the price surge was news of a drought in South America, where it’s growing season, said Kruse in a statement. However, he cautioned the drought in Brazil is not expected to be as severe as first thought.
“Remember they started with a much larger crop than ever before. If yields drop 5 percent, they could still grow more beans than they grew last year,” Kruse said.
In other economic pluses, exports of United States soybeans have continued at a strong pace. China bought 410 million bushels, setting a new record this year, and Chinese purchases continued six to eight weeks longer than expected, Kruse pointed out.
A weaker U.S. dollar has also favored soybean exports, Kruse said. However, increasing freight rates are decreasing the advantage. It costs a lot more to move beans now, he said.
“If you are speculating on soybean rust reducing U.S. yields and increasing prices, that is probably not a safe bet,” Kruse said. “With a normal crop, a major downward adjustment in prices is expected by the end of July.”
And simple supply and demand shows there are plenty of beans, Reinbott said.
No matter what’s in store for this year’s soybean crop, Reinbott said most farmers have taken the appropriate steps to be prepared. He noted all of the Extension’s winter meetings had very big turnouts.
“I think they’re learning,” Reinbott said. “They’re learning the different spray nozzles to use, and it’s just a learning process for everybody — for us at the University and the farmers.”
In an effort to detect/prevent a soybean rust outbreak, Reinbott said all of the Extension’s agents will be assigned to multiple fields in the county.
“We all have microscopes and digital cameras,” Reinbott said. “We’re working on putting a Web site up and scouting these fields on a regular basis. Hopefully we’ll do our part to keep farmers updated on what’s going on.”
For more information about soybean rust, farmers should contact their county’s extension offices.
