Exactly one year after Barack Obama was elected president, the giddy euphoria of election night has long since given way to the harsh realities of governing. Nothing symbolizes that better than the war in Afghanistan and the grim set of options facing the president.Militarily and politically, the war is going badly. The Taliban is aggressively seizing control of more Afghan territory and getting better at killing American troops. October’s toll of 59 marked the deadliest month yet in the eight-year war. Meanwhile, Hamid Karzai was formally reelected president Monday, despite having won a nakedly fraudulent election, after his chief rival dropped out of a planned runoff.
This “messy” process, as President Obama delicately put it, deepens the president’s conundrum as he weighs Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s request for about 44,000 more American troops to mount a counterinsurgency effort against the Taliban. That strategy depends on the ability to work with, and hand off to, a competent Afghan government and army--yet the United States is stuck with an ineffectual leader, a corrupt government and a weak Afghan security force.
It’s no wonder that Obama is deliberating--critics call it dithering--so long.
During last year’s U.S. election campaign, it must have seemed much easier than this. Obama could talk reassuringly about how the Iraq war was the wrong one and Afghanistan the right one, because it was imperative to destroy al-Qaeda and prevent its one-time Taliban hosts from reclaiming power.
That remains the case, and pulling back would signal a lack of determination, invite a Taliban takeover and could further destabilize neighboring Pakistan. Yet escalating likely means more troops, for which there’s waning support in Congress and American public opinion, and which raises the specter of a Vietnam-like quagmire.
Amid these bad options, Obama does have two things going his way. One is that the U.S. military learns from its mistakes and gets better as it fights. Witness the dramatic improvement in Iraq after the troop surge and a change in strategy. The other is that as skeptical as Afghans are of President Karzai, they like the Taliban even less. An ABC/BBC poll earlier this year showed 82 percent support for the government and just 4 percent support for the Taliban.
That’s something to build on, but those who think there is a quick, cost-free answer--whether pullout or troop infusion--are deluding themselves. Turning around the situation in Afghanistan, if it’s doable at all, will require forcing reform on President Karzai, strengthening the Afghan army and, if President Obama opts for a counterinsurgency strategy, giving his generals enough troops to allow it to work. As with the Iraq surge, that’s the last, best chance for success.
