Knowing your enemy, as ancient Chinese Gen. Sun Tzu said, is essential to winning any battle.Yet, as President Barack Obama decides on an Afghanistan strategy and on whether to send more American troops, there¡¦s a lack of clarity about the nature of the opposition.
Is it primarily al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden¡¦s Arab-dominated terror group that carried out the 9/11 attacks and seeks to dominate the world with its medieval brand of Islam or is it al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the religious fundamentalists seeking to return to power in Afghanistan and seize control in Pakistan?
More pointedly, what is the Taliban? It doesn¡¦t entirely fit its dominant image as al-Qaeda¡¦s former host and current ally, The Taliban is not a single, monolithic movement. Far from it. Several groups are fighting the Afghan government, the Pakistani government and Western forces. They often act independently with distinct command structures, ideologies and strategies.
Within Afghanistan, the Taliban includes three main groups. The so-called Haqqani network, the one that poses the greatest danger, has close ties to al-Qaeda. The Hizb-e-Islami is less religiously rigid, sometimes allowing music and parties. Then there¡¦s an assortment of tribal-based thugs and criminals who call themselves Taliban to improve their standing.
This has three implications:
„P Trying to treat al-Qaeda and the Taliban as separate threats is unrealistic and unworkable.
It would certainly be easier, and more convenient, if al-Qaeda and the Taliban could be regarded as distinct entities. That would allow the United States to pursue a simpler ¡§counter terrorism¡¨ strategy against the remnants of al-Qaeda instead of a far more complex ¡§counterinsurgency¡¨ strategy against the Taliban.
Unfortunately, however, the weight of the evidence is that al-Qaeda and significant elements of the Taliban have become so closely aligned as to be inseparable.
The harrowing account that New York Times journalist David Rohde is giving of his months in Taliban captivity in Pakistan shows how readily al-Qaeda¡¦s ideology infects young men who have little education and opportunity. Until he was kidnapped, Mr. Rohde writes, ¡§I did not fully understand how extreme many of the Taliban had become.¡¨ Contact with foreign militants in the tribal areas of western Pakistan has radicalized many Taliban fighters and left them with a world view, anti-American aims and readiness to commit barbarous acts straight out of the al-Qaeda playbook.
„P Any mission will fail unless the United States and its allies can demonstrate staying power.
The enemy is adept at sensing weakness. If the extremists, and potential recruits, believe that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are heading for the exit, the psychological tide could turn decisively in their favor. As it is, the American commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, has warned that the Taliban is winning there. Osama bin Laden relentlessly taunts the United States and the West for not sticking with military ventures when the going gets tough. He cites Vietnam, Somalia and elsewhere. The fact that the United States did not pull out of Iraq as insurgents dragged that country into civil war helped persuade many Sunni leaders to abandon the insurgency there. That is a strong argument in favor of Gen. McChrystal¡¦s request for more troops if there is to be a military solution.
„P Go all out to provide better lives and education to ordinary people--and minimize civilian casualties.
The Taliban¡¦s influence in Afghanistan stems more from fear than from popularity. Just 4 percent of Afghans in a recent poll said they¡¦d like to see the Taliban back in power, as it was before the American-led invasion in 2001. The United States can capitalize on this by sustaining pressure on Afghan government officials to deliver more aid and better services to their people. The Taliban can¡¦t be eradicated from Afghanistan, but Gen. McChrystal¡¦s plan to make villages safer from its fighters seems a sensible approach.
Pakistan, too, badly needs to complement its military offensive against extremists with stepped-up economic and educational opportunities. It has paid little more than lip service to those so far. Although American drone strikes have killed militant leaders and need to continue, doing more to avoid civilian casualties and mistreatment of prisoners will deprive the enemy of propaganda bonanzas.
Another part of Gen. Sun Tzu¡¦s dictum holds that, ¡§When you are ignorant of the enemy, but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal.¡¨
Better to improve the odds.
The above is an editorial of USA Today.
